A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
